The President of UNC has addressed a letter dated March 16, 2026, to the Chief Minister of Manipur, requesting the postponement of the census 2027. This is precisely what the Meiteis have been demanding, and the UNC has played into the scheming hands of the dominant community. By doing so, the opportunity to reap the benefit of the higher population growth rate of tribes in “Hill Areas” vis-à-vis the diminishing growth rate of the valley is lost, and therefore the demand of UNC can be termed as a sell-out of tribal interests.
UNC has made three points in the letter to justify its action: illegal immigration and citizenship issues, breakdown of public order, and unresolved district rollback issue. Firstly, as is the trend in India, Special Intensive Revision (SIR) will be taken up in Manipur before the assembly election due in March-April 2027. National Register of Citizens (NRC) is a long-drawn-out affair which will take years to implement and conclude and will not be completed under any circumstances before the start of Census 2027 operations. SIR has elements of establishing citizenship as seen in other states where elections have been held. Under the SIR exercise, Manipur is likely to witness a significant reduction in the number of electors, as seen in many states. The SIR exercise will be carried out with swift precision to eliminate duplicates, deceased, migration, non-citizens/foreigners, minors, etc., and the Manipur public should have no reason to worry about its effectiveness to clean up the electoral rolls. On the second issue, “public order” is hardly a matter of concern as far as the Census goes. If there is cooperation from the people, there will be no disruptions. However, if manipulation is suspected, the people of Manipur can count on the Election Commission of India (ECI) to do its job with impartiality. Further, the Central government has claimed normalcy in the state, as a result, a new state government has been installed, and President’s rule has been revoked. On the third issue, UNC should know that the current nationwide Census (postponed from 2021) and the upcoming delimitation to be based on Census 2027 population figures have made many states pause reorganisation of districts until these exercises are completed. The Manipur government has ordered a freeze on all administrative boundaries (districts, tehsils, villages) from January 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027, specifically to facilitate census operations. This is a mandatory administrative procedure designed to uphold the integrity of the delimitation process. The demand of the UNC to roll back district creation is something that will not happen before the completion of the delimitation exercise and is therefore not likely to be acted upon.
The call by UNC for the postponement of the census, therefore rests on just two points. The first issue of illegal immigration and citizenship will be taken care of by SIR. This is a foregone conclusion as witnessed in many states heading for the polls. The second issue of public order is already settled by the fact that the Central government has claimed that normalcy in the state and hence a popular state government has been installed on February 4th, 2026. The basis of UNC to request the postponement of Census 2027 stands nullified and has no basis anymore. UNC should immediately deem that the letter dated March 16th, 2026 addressed to the CM, Manipur is withdrawn citing the need for wider consultation with stakeholders on the matter.
There are, however, two issues that call for introspection by UNC and the Apex bodies of each Naga tribe. Firstly, does the UNC have the authority to take such decisions having far-reaching consequences, like postponing the Census (Census 2027) which has automatic implications on Delimitation, without wide consultation on such matters? Secondly, there is a need for clarity to determine what is the pressing issue confronting the Nagas under current circumstances; is it the fear that the number of assembly seats from Kuki-dominated areas will increase substantially or is it the need for the tribes, Nagas and Kuki, to combine and work together to overcome the hegemonic strategies of the Meitei community to keep the tribes in “Hill Areas” subjugated and suppressed? The Census 2027 and its subsequent follow-up of Delimitation is an opportunity of a lifetime not likely to repeat again till after the lapse of a couple of decades. If this opportunity of increasing the number of assembly seats for “Hill Areas” is lost, the tribes will remain subjugated and suppressed till the next Delimitation exercise after 2028-29. The frequency of holding Delimitation is likely to change from every decade to every couple of decades. Delimitation is important to the tribes as it will determine the number of assembly seats for “Hill Areas” and “Valley”. The administrative areas of these two distinct geographies have to be adhered to and maintained not only because of the Delimitation Act, but also to adhere to the provisions of Article 371-C and the 1972 Presidential Order which give “Hill Areas” its unique character of an entity separate from the “Valley”.
If Census 2027 is postponed on account of the UNC supporting the Meitei demand for postponement, the “Hill Areas” will stand to lose more than a couple of assembly seats. However, if Census 2027 is carried out as scheduled without disruption through full cooperation of the tribes in “Hill Areas”, it would have the potential of impacting the dominance of the Meitei community in the political arena as the population growth rate of “Hill Areas” in each decadal census has been higher than that of the valley. Further, the census of 2027 is being held after 16 years and the impact of population growth will be greater this time. Inversely, the population growth rate of the Meitei community has been decreasing each decadal census and therefore they are apprehensive of its consequences and want to disrupt the Census 2027 operations. On account of these facts, the younger tribal generations will not forgive the UNC for the sell-out which will result in fewer assembly seats for the tribes in “Hill Areas” if Census 2027is not held impacting the ability of the tribes to free themselves from the stranglehold of oppression and subjugation.
It is indeed intriguing to speculate what could have influenced UNC to take an abrupt and unilateral decision without consulting the apex bodies of each Naga tribe and intellectuals. For such a crucial event like Census 2027 to be followed by Delimitation, common sense entails wide consultation. Everyone knows that the population of tribes in hill areas has been growing at a faster rate on account of backwardness, while that of the valley has a slower growth rate. Census 2027 followed by delimitation, is expected to impact the power equation between the valley and “Hill Areas” favouring the latter. The power shift after delimitation is likely to neutralise the dominance of the Meitei community, taking into account that Muslims will have at least two or three MLAs elected from the valley, and the assembly seats for “Hill Areas” will increase significantly if the delimitation exercise is based on Census 2027. Do UNC not know that the population figures for three subdivisions, namely Mao-Maram, Paomata, and Purul, all located in the Senapati district, are based on estimated or extrapolated data of Census 2001 rather than direct enumeration, primarily due to technical and administrative reasons? The extrapolated data needs to be corrected by the Census of 2027. The postponement of the census could result in the postponement of delimitation for Manipur or delimitation could be based on extrapolated figures of Census 2001 which will hurt the interests of “hill areas” and benefit the valley. Why? Because of the simple fact that the population growth rate of the “Hill Areas” is higher than that of the valley in every decadal census. The Census 2027 would give the real population figures which will definitely benefit the “Hill Areas”.
This raises the question whether UNC can be trusted to chart the future of the Nagas and the tribes who are currently facing hegemonic advances from the dominant community who refuses to give the “Hill Areas” their own laws as envisaged under Article 371-C and 1972 Presidential Order, threaten to extend MLR&LR Act, stonewall extension of the Sixth Schedule and appropriate the lion’s share of all benefits for themselves. The priority of the tribes combined is to break the stranglehold of the dominant community and Census 2027 is the best constitutional opportunity to break it. The UNC having taken an abrupt unilateral decision without consultation with the apex bodies of the Nagas tribes, Kuki tribes and intelligentsia has betrayed the cause of the tribes living in “Hill Areas”. Apex Naga tribe bodies need to pressurise the UNC for a deeper consultation and rework the strategy concerning Census 2027 and Delimitation. It is not to be forgotten that the two constitutional provisions (census and delimitation) are to be viewed and considered together and not in isolation from each other. The UNC should consider withdrawing its letter to the CM of Manipur unilaterally failing which the Apex bodies of various Naga tribes should pressurise the UNC to do so.
Further, in my humble opinion, the time has come to seek the resignation of the office bearers of UNC as they have repeatedly been displaying their incompetence to deal with current and pressing situations affecting the Naga people and the tribes.
Aran Shimray
New Delhi
17th March 2026
(The views and opinions in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of Rural Post)
